So, who can expect a cheery wake-up call? Anne Thompson has already posted IndieWire’s Golden Globe predictions on the film front, and below you can find our expectations for TV. The pandemic continues to cause disarray, as many perennial contenders saw production delays that pushed them out of eligibility. That means “Succession” won’t defend its Best Drama Series title, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” won’t be back in the Comedy mix, and Apple TV+ will have to find a contender outside “The Morning Show” to keep its hot hand with the HFPA afire.
Below, check out IndieWire’s TV predictions in all categories, and check back first thing Wednesday morning for analysis of the full results. Winter is finally here. Welcome.
Best TV Series – Drama
Best TV Series – Comedy or Musical
In a Perfect World: “Better Things,” “Sex Education,” “The Baby-Sitters Club,” “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” “Superstore,” “Kidding,” “Brockmire,” “Vida” Zero — that’s right, none — of last year’s nominees are eligible in the Best Comedy or Musical Series category at the Golden Globes. (Can you believe “Fleabag” Season 2 went on its awards run just last year?) So expect a bunch of HFPA newbies to make their way into the race in 2021, starting with everyone’s favorite freshman series, “Ted Lasso.” Apple TV+ has pulled out all the stops to highlight their first bona fide breakthrough hit, and effusive word of mouth has kept the good vibes rolling. It would be an upset of incalculable proportions for the Globes to miss the chance to be the first major awards show to anoint Jason Sudeikis’ crowdpleaser an awards favorite, but what about the already anointed? “Schitt’s Creek” got the sweeping endorsement of the TV Academy in 2020, but the Pop TV original has never been nominated for a Golden Globe (not even after the Emmys first sparked to it in 2019). Is it too late, or will they hop on the bandwagon for one last romp? I’ll give the slight edge to another freshman favorite, “The Flight Attendant,” given it’s another yet-to-be-awarded newcomer, but the final three slots are more of a toss-up: It’s likely only one Hulu original will make the cut, so it’ll either be “Ramy” or “The Great” (or perhaps “Pen15?), while established programs like “Insecure,” “What We Do in the Shadows,” and “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist” hope the HFPA has warmed to them in recent seasons.
Best TV Movie or Limited Series
If one show is destined to be the Golden Globes’ golden child of 2021, it’s “The Queen’s Gambit.” Hailed by critics, adored by fans, and featuring a star-making turn at its core, the October release is primed for awards dominance this winter — and it should start with the Globes. Other contenders have noticeable weak spots: “Unorthodox,” a subtitled Netflix series that broke out in the early months of the pandemic feels right up the HFPA’s alley, but it’s also been out for nearly a year. Age could also ding Emmy darlings FX on Hulu’s “Mrs. America” and Hulu’s “Normal People,” though the veteran star power of the former and budding breakouts in the latter may be enough to keep them in the mix. “The Undoing” is new and filled with A-list talent, but critics ravaged the six-episode limited series, especially after the finale. Meanwhile, HBO’s best program is “I May Destroy You.” Will they treat Michaela Coel’s knockout like fellow Brit Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s “Fleabag”? Here’s hoping. Eli Joshua Ade / HBO
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Best Actor in a Drama Series
In a Perfect World: Nicco Annan, “P-Valley”; John Malkovich, “The New Pope”; Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”; Ben Mendelsohn, “The Outsider” No matter who makes the final cut, this year’s batch of Best Actor nominees will be an intriguing bunch. On the one hand, there are plenty of breakouts who could steal the HFPA’s collective heart: Jonathan Majors became a star with the one-two summer punch of “Da 5 Bloods” and “Lovecraft Country,” while Regé-Jean Page warmed our cold, wintered hearts in “Bridgerton.” There’s also Nicco Annan’s showstopping turn in “P-Valley” and Josh O’Connor’s even more demanding sophomore year as Prince Charles, but they’ll have to sideline veteran favorites like Jason Bateman (who represents the only nominations for “Ozark’s” first two seasons) and the new “Perry Mason,” Matthew Rhys (who snagged two nominations himself for “The Americans”). Toss in rising stars on hit shows like Pedro Pascal (as if the HFPA would let performing behind a mask stop them from nominating the season’s most talked about actor) and “The Boys” baddie Antony Starr, and the competition is both fierce and wide-ranging. Get ready. There will undoubtedly be surprises. Phil Caruso / HBO Max
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Spoilers: Don Cheadle, “Black Monday”; Matt Berry, “What We Do in the Shadows”; Ricky Gervais, “After Life”; Rob McElhenney, “Mythic Quest” In a Perfect World: Jim Carrey, “Kidding”; Asa Butterfield, “Sex Education”; Hank Azaria, “Brockmire”; Ben Feldman, “Superstore” You have to like Sudeikis’ odds here, given the months-long outpouring of support for his Apple TV+ comedy, and Youssef, who returned with an equally strong turn in “Ramy” Season 2, is last year’s winner. With the Globes, that’s no guarantee, as the HFPA can move on from favorites in the blink of an eye, but those two remain at the top of the list. Eugene Levy, meanwhile, is now a four-time Emmy winner with zero Globe nods; how the voters respond (or don’t) to “Schitt’s Creek” final season will likely decide if his shutout continues. Similar questions hover over formerly snubbed shows like “What We Do in the Shadows” (Matt Berry) and “Black Monday” (Don Cheadle), which could see a spike in interest after other awards showed interest, as well as “Superstore” (Ben Feldman) and “Brockmire” (Hank Azaria), which are both very well-deserved and long overdue. But a couple of newcomers may have the edge: If the HFPA flips for “The Great,” Nicholas Hoult will be a shoo-in (with a good shot at winning), while Dave Burd is the buzzy outsider (with big ratings) who could prove a nice draw for the ceremony itself. Ken Woroner / Netflix
Best Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Best Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Spoilers: Hugh Jackman, “Bad Education”; Jeff Daniels, “The Comey Rule”; Chris Rock, “Fargo”; Chris Evans, “Defending Jacob” In a Perfect World: Hugh Jackman, “Bad Education”; Jude Law, “The Third Day”; André Holland, “The Eddy”; Nick Offerman, “Devs” Will the Golden Globes offer Ethan Hawke the platform his tremendous lead turn in “The Good Lord Bird” demands? After a very strong response from critics, Showtime’s rousing limited series dropped quickly from the discourse, but Hawke seems undeniable, especially here. Mark Ruffalo, fresh off his Emmy win for “I Know This Much Is True,” and Hugh Grant, who does the heaviest lifting in “The Undoing,” should keep the pressure on, though perhaps here is where the Globes make their statement. Maybe they want to make sure people pay attention to newcomer Paul Mescal after “Normal People,” or perhaps they want to reward Bryan Cranston’s return to serialized leading man territory in Showtime’s other limited series, “Your Honor.” Hugh Jackman’s best performance to date is also sitting right there, waiting for its much deserved kudos, while Jeff Daniels (“The Comey Rule”) and Chris Rock (“Fargo”) hope their series made enough noise to be remembered by the voters. Des Willie / Netflix
Best Supporting Actress in a Series or TV Movie
Many thought Helena Bonham Carter’s long wait for her first Golden Globe award would end in 2020, yet Patricia Arquette pushed back the coronation yet again. Now, the question of whether or not she wins has to wait until she gets her ninth nomination, a possibility but far from a certainty in 2021. She’ll have to contend with fellow “Crown” juggernaut Gillian Anderson, whose take on Margaret Thatcher earned raves, as well as “Schitt’s Creek” star Annie Murphy, whose fate rests on whether or not the Globes finally spark to her Canadian comedy. Other excellent options include Uzo Aduba for “Mrs. America” (fresh off her Emmy win), Julia Garner in “Ozark” (coming off her second Emmy herself), and Jessie Buckley in “Fargo” (who, if there were any justice, would be a dual nominee for the FX anthology and Netflix’s “I’m Thinking of Ending Things”). But I’m betting the HFPA goes big on “The Queen’s Gambit,” including a much-deserved nod for Marielle Heller here.
