North American theaters will gross around $75 million this weekend. That’s $10 million more than last weekend, which improves our rolling four-week 2019 comparison from 44 percent to 51 percent. (The same weekend in 2019 saw $121 million, putting this weekend’s result at 62 percent as much.) On the AMC earnings call this week, CEO Adam Aron said his company would have a positive cash flow for Q4 2021 if domestic grosses for 2021 reached $5.2 million. Going forward, that means each week until December 31 would need to gross about 80 percent of the same week in 2019.
“Free Guy” cost more than $100 million, marketing not included. Foreign markets added $23 million this weekend, for $51 million worldwide. The film exceeded expectations, but profitability isn’t assured. Even so, Reynolds tweeted Sunday that Disney already wants a sequel.
— Ryan Reynolds (@VancityReynolds) August 14, 2021 A profit on “Free Guy” will require a strong hold and a domestic total of more than $80 million. Disney inherited the title from Fox and those contractual obligations mean the studio won’t see the same premium PVOD payday as other recent releases like “Black Widow.” It’s reasonable to expect that if and when there is a “Free Guy 2,” it will have a completely different distribution plan. Disney’s “Free Guy” marketing touted it as a theater-only release; it opened better than Warner Bros.’ “Suicide Squad,” which opened day-and-date on HBO Max. That certainly suggests theater exclusivity enhances grosses, especially for a film like “Free Guy” that played heavily male (59 percent) and younger (70 percent under 35). Another big difference between the films is that “Suicide Squad” — like Disney’s “Black Widow,” also a theatrical underperformer with PVOD availability — is part of a lengthy franchise. Audiences seem to suggest that they’re increasingly interested in original films rather than retreads. That may not be the data point studios were looking for: Originality induces anxiety. A studio might be willing to spend $100 million for an original comedy with a reliable lead like Ryan Reynolds, but how often? “Don’t Breathe 2” may have fallen victim to audience disinterest in familiarity, but it was hurt by competition and arrived after a season of horror films. (Sony didn’t release its Cinemascore.) In pre-Covid times, we might have expected to see it gross more than twice as much. MGM
Perhaps the film that absorbed the greatest impact from the Delta variant was Aretha Franklin biopic “Respect.” It met expectations, but $8.8 million is underwhelming. Its target audience is older, a near-mirror image of “Free Guy” — 67 percent over 35, a group that is slowest in its return to theaters. When the film moves to home availability, the acclaim for Jennifer Hudson’s portrayal could still pay off. Like “Free Guy,” it had an excellent A Cinemascore. It still has a chance to build, but the well-reviewed films for adult audiences that populate awards season may face a struggle. “Jungle Cruise,” “Black Widow,” and “Old” all fell less than 50 percent. (The first two are on PVOD.) In its second week, “Suicide Squad” plummeted 70 percent. The HBO showings don’t help, but that collapse appears to stem more from negative audience reaction and “Free Guy” competition. Expect “Space Jam” to gross more. Apple TV+ “CODA,” Apple’s record-setting Sundance acquisition, began streaming Friday and opened in around 40 theaters. Bleecker Street oversees distribution and grosses were not reported. According to the online booking sites for two key theaters — the Angelika in Manhattan and The Landmark in Los Angeles, both of which offered the film on two screens — Saturday appeared to yield grosses of less than $2,500 in each theater, suggesting full weekends under $7,000 each. These locations likely represent the best results for “CODA.” These theaters, like the film, appeal to older audiences. Bucking Saturday trends, it did better in matinees than in evening performances. The Top 10
