Heading into the final stretch (as Oscar ballots are filed March 17–22 ahead of the Academy Awards March 27), next weekend brings the PGA, ASC, and WGA Awards. Here’s what we learned about who’s ahead and who’s behind.
— Variety (@Variety) March 13, 2022 Campion followed her DGA win — against the formidable Steven Spielberg, Paul Thomas Anderson, Denis Villeneuve, and Kenneth Branagh — with five BAFTA and four Critics Choice wins, which presage more likely prizes at the upcoming PGA Awards and Oscars. What she didn’t anticipate was blowback from her Critic Choice acceptance speech, when she said: “Venus and Serena, you’re marvels but you don’t have to compete against the men like I do.” She later danced with Venus Williams at the Netflix afterparty and subsequently issued an apology, so there seemed to be no hard feelings. Anne Thompson
When “The Power of the Dog” did not land a SAG Ensemble nomination (but did score three acting nominations, followed by four acting Oscar slots), that opened the way for Sian Heder’s “CODA” (Apple TV+) to win that award. But the DGA win for “The Power of the Dog” gives it a clear lead in the race for Best Picture and Director. Overwhelmingly, the DGA winner wins the Best Director Oscar. Only eight times in 72 years has that not happened. And more often than not — 55 times — the DGA winner’s movie also wins Best Picture. But Campion lost Adapted Screenplay to Heder at the BAFTAs, while taking it at the Critics Choice, along with Picture, Director, and Best Cinematography (Ari Wegner). At the WGA, “The Power of the Dog” is not eligible, and at the ASC and Oscars, the cinematography win could go to either Ari Wegner or BAFTA winner Greig Fraser for “Dune.” 2. “CODA” (Apple TV+): The SAG Ensemble winner is steady as it goes. It should take home at least one Oscar win, as SAG and Indie Spirit Supporting Actor winner Troy Kotsur continues to sweep, adding BAFTA and CCA wins to his collection of statuettes. With support from actors and writers, “CODA” also took home Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs, losing to “The Power of the Dog” at the CCAs, and is expected to win the WGA, where its rivals — Campion and Maggie Gyllenhaal, the USC Scripter, Indie Spirit, and DGA First Feature winner for “The Lost Daughter” — are not eligible. The third possible “CODA” win, assuming the preferential ballot with 10 entries goes its way, is Best Picture. That answer will be clearer next weekend with the PGA Awards, which reflect the mainstream branches of the Academy most likely to give “CODA” high marks on a preferential ballot, but also tends to favor big-scale movies (eventual BP winners “Spotlight” and “Parasite” did not get PGA nominations). More often than not, the PGA winner lines up with Best Picture. Finally, the stats are against this long-shot scenario, even with a lot of sentiment for the movie, because it is extremely rare for a Best Picture nominee to win without an Editing nomination. “Birdman” did it, but was perceived to be a one-take movie. Anne Thompson 3. “Dune” (Warner Bros./HBO Max) cleaned up with the craft awards this weekend, dominating the BAFTAs with five total wins: Best Cinematography, Best Special Visual Effects, Best Sound, Best Score, and Best Production Design. And the film ultimately won three of the same awards at the CCAs (Production Design, VFX, and Score). The movie could land five or six on Oscar night.
Anne Thompson 10. “Summer of Soul” (Searchlight) lost the top prizes at the IDA and Cinema Eye to “Flee,” and the DGA Award to “Attica,” but took home big wins at the CCA Documentary Awards, Spirits, and BAFTAs — which represents how the international voters may go. Rookie director Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson is hugely popular; this award is voted on by the entire Academy and tends to go mainstream (see “My Octopus Teacher”). 11. “Flee” (Neon), which won the Documentary Feature Gotham and the European Film Awards, is not likely to win an Oscar: Its three record nominations for Animated, Documentary, and International Feature are the win for this extraordinary documentary. 12. “Encanto” (Disney Animation) won the ACE editing award and the National Board of Review, Golden Globe, Visual Effects Society, and BAFTA for Animated Feature; EGOT-seeking songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda, who is beloved in Hollywood, has four songs on the Billboard charts and could also win the Best Song Oscar. But he’s competing with Billie Eilish’s “No Time to Die,” which won the CCA for Best Song. The Oscar for Score will likely go to CCA and BAFTA winning “Dune” composer Hans Zimmer. 13. “The Mitchells vs the Machines” (Netflix) won the top Annie award as well as the Critics Choice, so rookie director Mike Rianda and his producers Phil Lord and Christopher Miller are still in the running for the Oscar. 15. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight) is in the running for four craft Oscars, but is not favored to win; it did not take home any BAFTA or CCA Awards. Beloved Oscar-winning writer-director Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”), who hosted a stream of visitors at his table at the Critics Choice Awards, will be back. Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.
