So, who are the special snowflakes among the Screen Actors Guild? Anne Thompson has already posted IndieWire’s SAG Awards predictions on the film front, and below you can find our expectations for TV. The pandemic continues to cause disarray, as many perennial contenders saw production delays that pushed them out of eligibility. That means “The Handmaid’s Tale” isn’t competing in the Drama categories, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” won’t be back in the Comedy mix, and maybe, just maybe, “Game of Thrones” won’t be nominated this year.
Below, check out IndieWire’s TV predictions in all categories, and check back Thursday morning for analysis of the full results. Winter is finally here. Let’s enjoy it, shall we?
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Spoilers: Josh O’Connor, “The Crown”; Tobias Menzies, “The Crown”; Tom Pelphrey, “Ozark”; Rege-Jean Page, “Bridgerton”; Pedro Pascal, “The Mandalorian”; John Lithgow, “Perry Mason”; Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us”; Antony Starr, “The Boys” In a Perfect World: Nicco Annan, “P-Valley”; John Malkovich, “The New Pope”; Jude Law, “The New Pope”; Ben Mendelsohn, “The Outsider”; Jack Dylan Grazer, “We Are Who We Are”; The “Billions” Boys NBC
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series
History tells us to trust in the past, so with that in mind, expect “The Crown,” “Ozark,” “This Is Us,” and “Better Call Saul” to all make the cut in the Ensemble race. Each has been nominated here before, and each has been nominated recently — either last year, or for their last eligible season, save for “This Is Us,” which missed out after two straight years in the club. So why will the NBC drama make the cut this year? Simple: Four of the five 2020 nominees are no longer eligible, and without many new, dominant, actorly series to take those slots, I expect strong ratings to buoy back a show that’s always featured a solid, likable cast. As for the fifth slot, it’s a four-way race between “Lovecraft Country,” “The Mandalorian,” “Bridgerton,” and “Perry Mason.” Each one of these has viewership in its corner (an increasingly key attribute at the SAGs), but “The Mandalorian” and “Bridgerton” seem more craft-friendly than actors’ favorites. If HBO’s lush reboot proves endearing to voters, its cast will be irresistible, but I’m betting on “Lovecraft’s” Jurnee Smollett, Jonathan Majors, and Aunjanue Ellis to cast a more powerful spell on the Screen Actors Guild.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
OK, this list might look a little off, but here me out. Apple proved last year it had the viewership needed to get its top-tier talent nominated — Jennifer Aniston even won. (Remember that? Wasn’t that great? Yes, yes it was.) Also, I think we can all agree “The Morning Show” didn’t have quite the across-the-board love “Ted Lasso” does, so I have to believe voters will back Jason Sudeikis as hard as Apple is backing his show. Dan and Eugene Levy should capitalize on the “Schitt’s Creek” love, but neither has been nominated here before, so their inclusion is far from a sure thing. Anthony Anderson (“Black-ish”), Ted Danson (“The Good Place”), and Ramy Youssef (“Ramy”) could all steal one or both their spots, but even if they don’t, there’s one more dark horse worth keeping an eye on: Steve Carell. The former “Office” star is absolutely beloved at the SAGs, with nine solo nominations over film and television. At this time last year, many had written off his chances of getting nominated for “The Morning Show,” citing bad reviews and an unlikable character. He still got in. “Space Force” may not be top of mind, but it earned sizable viewership on Netflix, and Carell has earned unlikelier nods. The safe money would be on Ted Danson, but I’ll take a flyer on Carell. FX
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Best Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Thanks to the SAG’s limited categories for limited series, “The Queen’s Gambit” may get more attention at other awards shows, but it should still walk away with this category. Anya Taylor-Joy is the star of the moment, even when she’s facing down titans like Nicole Kidman (“The Undoing”), Cate Blanchett (“Mrs. America”), Kerry Washington (“Little Fires Everywhere”), Uzo Aduba (“Mrs. America”), and Octavia Spencer (“Self-Made”). Daisy Edgar-Jones could sneak into the race on the back of “Normal People’s” popularity (and a very deserving performance, of course), while Michaela Coel is a powerhouse of her own making. (“I May Destroy You” could be a legitimate rival to “The Queen’s Gambit,” though its summer release seems to be dampening the buzz.)
